The laws of history and systematic thinking
hundred years ago, an outstanding ) This book, in addition to describing Napoleon and the history of tsarist Russia, outside the story, about two-thirds of the length of the meditation why most historians can not really explain the facts:
century's first fifteen years, the emergence of a very unusual movement, millions of people to join. the work that people put aside the usual; the movement of the waves, first from Europe, the impact of this to that one. plunder and murder, victory and despair full of people. human pace of life changed dramatically throughout, at first in order to increase the speed of movement, and then slowly decreasing. Some people ask: What is the reason of this activity, or, in the end it is the law according to what happened?
To answer this question, the historian of Paris was an important figure in the analysis one by one, then two words for these people say and do summary mm revolution. these historians as well as Napoleon, and with him close to or become enemies of the who wrote a detailed biography, talking about one of the important relationship between the characters, and then concluded that, because these things make the revolution happen, and these are the laws of history.
such an interpretation. In fact l r revolution and Napoleon's generation, many individuals will bring together the results, this will bring them to the pooling can also be its demise.
No matter what time of war there is the great military leaders; no matter what a time when the country will have a great revolution. r intelligent people believe: l no matter what, there was great military leaders, is indeed a war; But that does not mean that that is causing the causes of the war generals, or from the activities of an individual to find the factors that lead to war. r understanding of hope. he called the must put aside kings, ministers, generals, and started studying to guide the public but very similar to those subtle elements. no one can in the final analysis in this area of human progress in understanding the depth of the laws of history; but obviously only work in this direction is possible found that the laws of history. And now, the study of human use of intelligence on this method, less than many in the narrative historian with kings, ministers, generals hh such as the one in a million.
not see where the operation, the structure does not refer to the logical structure of arguments, nor are those plans appear to be structurally organized. In this, the system structure is referred to as time goes on, affect the behavior of some of the key of mutual relations. These relations are not present in the inter-relationship between people, but in between the key variables; such as population, natural resources, food production in developing countries, or high-tech company engineers product ideas, and technical and management elements.
in the beer game, order and inventory volatility caused by the structure, including a chain of multi-layer production and marketing chain, including the time delay between supply and demand (delay), information the limited access, and influence decision-making under each of the objectives, costs, knowledge, fear and so on. But when we use the term when the system structure, you must understand is that it is not just individuals outside of the structure. the opposite , in the delicate system of human society, the delicate nature of the structure, each molecule is part of the overall structure. That is to say, we have the power to change the exposure to which the structure involved in the operation.
However, most of us not understanding that power. In fact, we quite often can not see how these structures operate, only to find themselves forced to do so.
1973 �� psychologist Simba Duo (Philip Zimbardo) to do an experiment. In the experiment , the Stanford University Department of Psychology, students are placed in the basement, prisoners and prison guards to imitate the role. in prison, the prisoners started as a mild to resist, but when the pressure to enhance security, the rising rebel prisoners. this experiment until the guards began to physically abuse the prisoners, the experimenter feels the situation has seriously out of control when to stop. during the six days after the early end of the experiment, the students began to be frustrated because the tortured, can not be made to cry, and the body and mind have been exhausted.
another shudder that I feel the power of the international political structure. in the Soviet Union sent troops to Afghanistan a few months later, the Soviet Union officials also claim to have set up in Afghanistan when the first to admit that this country; internal struggle in Afghanistan is not stable time, its troops have repeatedly help. the late seventies, began to increase the threat of guerrillas in Afghanistan, the ruling authorities requested the Soviet Union to increase aid, leading to the expansion of the civil war, the Government of Afghanistan has deepened dependence on Soviet aid . And the rhetoric of Soviet invasion of Afghanistan: how to explain, they might also say that it had continued to increase your order. This story also reminds me of the United States ten or fifteen years ago, officials tried to explain the story of how the United States involvement in the Vietnam War.
Butterfly Effect When we say that changes in structure of the behavior of particular shape, the exact meaning of that? how to identify the forces that have control structures, how such knowledge will help us in a complex system into a more successful?
provide beer game explore the structure of how to influence behavior of a laboratory. to participate in the game who mm retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, only a week to make a decision, that is, how much beer order. retailers is the first role of a sudden increase in order quantity, and in order to reach the peak of the twelfth weeks. at this time why not beer as he expected delivery time, because the wholesale and manufacturers have started due to the goods there, but retailers did not ever thought about the upper reaches of the amount of shortage situation, still a significant increase in all costs to obtain the order quantity of beer. as a small perturbation, through the synergistic effect of the whole system, so we actually have substantially increased the amount of the order (as in chaos theory called General mm Florida storms, is due to a butterfly wings in Beijing caused by waving a bit). retailers around the peak of the purchase order of 40 units, the manufacturer's production peak of about 80 units.
results at first each the role of the order quantity are increasing, and then plummeted. this change form, from retailers to manufacturers, the more upstream the more magnified. In other words, the farther away the final consumer, the higher order quantity, but also fall The more powerful. played in every game manufacturers who have suffered a major crisis, in a week or more the amount of production of 40,60,100 did a few weeks later, it has been close to zero until the game production end.
Another notable game changes in behavior patterns can be, amount of inventory and less observed. retailers stock dropped from about the fifth week of below zero. retailers due to the number of goods continue to increase for a few weeks after its stock in the fifteenth week of the twelfth and thoughtful return to positive or not. Similarly, the wholesaler about the situation due to the goods from the seventh week, lasted until about the seventeenth week ; case goods manufacturer owed about starting from the ninth week, continuing into the nineteenth week or so. But once the stock began to have inventory, it began to surge in the number (in the third ten weeks, about 40 retailers, wholesale Business is about 80 to 120, the manufacturer of about 60 to 80), much higher than the desired volume. so every character have experienced
While consumer demand is stable, however, said more than increased to 8 boxes of beer, until after the end of the game is still a week 8 box.
In other words, an increased consumer demand after the simulation process in the following has been smooth. Of course, participate in the game three roles, in addition to other retailers, no one knows the needs of consumers, and retailers get the message consumer demand, but also fragments of information once a week, there is no clue to know what will happen next. < br> What happened exactly?
beer after the end of the game, we require wholesalers and manufacturers to play people who draw their hearts are considered, the most downstream consumer demand situation. Most people are painting a have ups and downs of the curve, just as they rise or fall as orders received. In other words, these participants who found the game, if the game has received order quantity rise and fall, must be due ups and downs of consumer demand. than species that have an often indulge in blame and blame certain people or things that tendency. the game is over, many people believe that culprit is the role of the game as the other person; but see the same game, no matter what the people playing these roles, same problem occurs each time they are convinced that the original assumption was only shattered. But there are still many people will blame the arrow points to the consumer, they must be inferred from the consumer demand violent storm off. But when they own speculated that a steady demand and consumers have made comparisons, this inference proved unfounded.
beer game and sometimes the participants will have great impact. I'll never forget the president of a large freight company slumped fell to, eyes wide open staring at the beer game charts. to suspend the rest ran to call again. He came back, I asked: the top management group has just completed a three-day operation of the review. a division of the fleet use of a very unstable fluctuations. seems rather obvious that the department did not do a good job the president. We of course blame the person, as in our Everyone in the experiment without hesitation as to blame the manufacturer. but I just suddenly wake up, these problems may be structural, not personal. So I had just rushed out to call back to the company headquarters, to cancel his dismissal procedures. ;
how to improve the performance of the beer game
when we can no longer blame others or to understand the customer, who participated in one last game to blame the object mm system. Some people say: The problem is we can not communicate with each other. sex.
order to let you know the possibility of improvement, let us suppose, if every person who participated in the game, do not take any stock too much or too little to correct the action, will produce what results . If you follow the New orders come in 4 cases of beer, 4 boxes of orders for the issue; received 8 cases of beer in order to issue the order 8 boxes.
full compliance with this , the continued amount of shortage had occurred, but the delay in delivery of the quantity ordered. And those who attended the game and did not take effort to correct them, because there is no strategic policy to exclude the first adjustment due to a large number of orders goods.
policy strategy does not succeed? may participate in the game most people will say no, because such a strategy due to the goods caused by the high number, so that everyone in the system must take a long time to wait pay the full their orders. In the real case, no doubt this situation will lure new competitors enter the market, they may provide better delivery of services to win. only has the exclusive ability to market the production and marketing company is possible adhere to such a strategy.
As mentioned earlier, but this strategy was able to eliminate sharp increase in order quantity decreased, and the attendant fluctuations in inventory. In addition, under the strategy in the absence of strategy, produced by the three characters total cost less than most (75%) who participated in the game caused by the cost. In other words, most of those who participated in the game (many of them are experienced managers) performance results, there is no policy strategy than using people poor. That is, the cost of trying to correct the imbalance state, the majority of people who participate in the game too far, the more get more worse.
the other hand, is worth noting that these participate in games, there are about 25% of the score is better than no policy strategy, of which about 10% of people score much better. In other words, success is possible. But this requires changes in the majority of people who attended the game point of view: in-depth realization We used to know about ways of thinking This part of the work on their own, but really need to do is to see this part of their own in which the system how to interact more.
the limitations of being cut suppose you think
also attended the game, whether playing any of the typical role, think about how you feel. you pay close attention to your inventory, cost, lack of quantity, orders and shipments situation. Like most of the wholesalers and manufacturers in general, to a game and a half You will fathom, had expected a large number of orders should come endless, but all of a sudden there week in and week zero order situation. On the other hand, imagine you are a manufacturer, you are to respond to new orders for shipping, but you is also ship for the wholesalers do not realize the impact of the next round of orders. Similarly, if you are a wholesaler, of orders for the next what will happen, you are not very clear; you just hope that after a reasonable delay in order to send to. then your understanding of the scope of the system is only as shown in Figure 3m8 of the white part of the right of the ring was cut off.
accordance with the plans on the white part of the knowledge of the situation, if you need beer, you just sent to the upstream Orders will be good. If your beer is not delivered as expected time, you send more orders. you're a part of their own work of dealing with this properly, that of incoming orders, sent the beer, and you suppliers expected time of delivery, no external changes are responded to.
limitations typical thinking errors is to mistakenly believe that their orders interact with other orders, the impact of variables is the . The vast majority of people within the system for their own part of the larger the fact that very vague knowledge. For example, they did not expect to send large orders, inventory suppliers will suck naked, resulting in supplier delivery more delay. they also never expected to send more if the next order to meet the delivery delay will lead to a vicious cycle, increasing system-wide problems.
this vicious cycle will be for any person who participated in the game panic began to increase; whether he is a role of any system, even if the manufacturer would not produce enough for beer, and produce the same panic effect. Finally, when a vicious cycle affecting another vicious cycle, the panic will be spread throughout the production and marketing system from top to bottom. Once the system is dominated by panic, everyone will be issued more than 20 to 50 times the actual order, which is a common phenomenon to.
expand the scope of thinking to improve Beer game performance, participants were thought to be expanding the scope of the white part as shown in Figure 3m9. in any location on the human impact, are beyond the scope of his position outside. For example, when you place an order, the supplier send beer, so you order the behavior of suppliers, then his behavior will also affect the behavior of another vendor. Second, your success not only by the impact of your order, but also by every other person within the system the impact of action. For example, if the manufacturer of beer out of stock, and soon everyone else will not have the goods. the smooth operation of large systems, each part can operate smoothly. In the beer game and many other systems , If you want to succeed himself, others can be successful. In addition, each participant must have this game consensus. because if any of the people who participated in the game panic, and sent a large order, panic through the system will be and intensified.
There are two key essentials available to participate in the game by reference:
First, should you have ordered, but due to time delay the arrival of the beer, but not yet the number of remember. one of my posts secret is: aspirin may have patiently waited efficacy, because you know to delay aspirin until after a period of time have an effect. Many people who attended the game Order of beer every week, until their due date to eliminate the amount of cargo, the consequences can imagine.
Second, do not panic. When your suppliers are not like normal as quickly when you want beer, you can do is the worst decision to order more beer; However, this is just a lot of people who do participate in the game. When tired due to continuous increase in the number of goods, and the customer protested loudly, it will need more practice to suppress their urge to order more beer. The lack of such a practice, you and others will suffer.
participate in the game most people can not catch these essentials, because only when you expand the boundaries of their thinking, and understanding the interaction between different roles, these essentials was obvious. two aspirin, then wait patiently, Know your re-issued orders, supplier delivery delays will worsen the phenomenon, which led to a vicious cycle.
participate in the game if people do it in accordance with these essentials, to what extent they can improve it? order to completely eliminate all over- and . In other words, a substantial improvement is possible.
update Consideration to remove mentally
described in chapter seven with intellectual disabilities to learn the game all can be found in beer:
thinking .
their and did not realize the seriousness of the situation until the situation is not reversed.
they problem, but blame others.
usually two to each role is composed of three groups to play, when the decision-making problems, the only blame each other blame, not learning together.
beer game to our in-depth realize that, in complex cases, mental retardation and learning ways of thinking that we are accustomed to the relationship between. Most people finish off the game was monotonous and less time, because it is only to do a passive reaction, however, Most people later realize that this passive response from their one and only focus on one week's event. to participate in games, most were new to the inventory and the shortage of beer, and order the sudden increase in shock and awe. When asked why such a decision, they would most likely explanation for the incident as: inventory. situation, there are multiple levels. In some sense, all the levels are equally true; but the effect is very different. If reactive stance to take. As previously mentioned, the interpretation of events in contemporary culture, the most common, and this is why the reason for the prevalence of reactive management.
levels according to changes in behavior and morphology of the explanations, the focus on longer-term look at trends and assess their implications. For example, in the beer game, one of the changes in behavior patterns may be explained: , the situation will become more serious. so sooner or later, the manufacturer may have a serious crisis. trend.
Figure 3m10 to explain the complex situation of the system view system-level hierarchy of view
(changes in behavior can be modified form)
d
-level view of behavior change shape Lu,
(can adapt to changing trends)
d
event-level view
(to reactive behavior)
third level of it is the most powerful and creative. It focused on the answer: produced the observed effects of instability and expansion, and consideration of delay in delivery on the delivery of new orders, and may lead to a vicious circle. Although the structural interpretation is not easy to find, but once we can clear and comprehensive manner explained from the structural level, its effect is very large.
U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt is a leader with this vision .1933 on March 12, Roosevelt by radio, to explain why the banks to leave four days. At that time the country was plunged into panic, Roosevelt calmly explain the operation of the banking system structural conditions. He said: within, but to invest your money in many different forms of credit business, such as bonds and mortgages. In other words, the banks use your money to keep the economy turning. Most of the people section, will result in inadequate reserves, then why do banks go out of business four days for the proposed restructuring of the financial order is necessary. he finally persuaded to support the radical Association of the necessary measures, but also from access to mass communication master in the world. < br> structural interpretation is so important because only it can reach the reasons behind the act, and thus improve the morphological changes in behavior. the structure of behavior, changing the underlying structure, changes in behavior can have different forms. In this sense , the structure of the explanation Shenju creativity. Because the structure of the human system, the system also includes a number of factors in how we make decisions, therefore, to redesign the way we make decisions, equal to the re-design the system structure.
on Most people who attended the game, the biggest gain in-depth to realize that the door had problems and possible improvements, all inevitably subject to influence their way of thinking. truly creative learning, thinking in an event based organization, it is not sustainable. It requires a structural or systemic framework for thinking and behavior is to identify all the structural reasons behind the ability. light a passion for creating the future is not enough.
when participants Beer Games people understand the structure behind the act, they see themselves more clearly the power to change these behaviors, and therefore can take in large systems operate more effectively in order decisions. They also confirmed a few years ago Curley (Walt Keily ) in his comic
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